10 reasons to believe the recession is over

by **vivek of themavericks...remember!!** » Tue Oct 22, 2002 6:29 pm

This one is a bumper. Actually I was suggested this topic by one amongst you who\'d rather prefer to mail me than participate. For those who wanted to know - \"No, I am not a stock broker... I am student!! So sorry and please do not make investment decisions based on what TV reports say! They are late atleast by 15mins\"
 
Reason 1 - The corporate biggies have finally started the \'recruitment spree\'. For ex, Infosys has realized the long term requirement of over 7,000. The quarter results have also been good enough. Even Wipro has surpassed expectation. Generally either the tech companies have done well or are confident of a growth with in the next 6 months, with newer clients being added. 

Reason 2 - Disinvestment - the govt has proceeded with the much awaited divestment of owned firms. Some setbacks are inevitable, but if the markets were tighter it would have been difficult to find a bidder. Reason 3 - Strong confidence in domestic currency - Even though Standard and Poor\'s decided to call our rupee \"junk\", Asian Development Bank did pump in $100bn in the domestic debt sector, which in short means that our rupee is not junk and worth more than the paper! Reason - 4 - Oil pricing - From now on the petrol and diesel prices will fluctuate almost fortnightly - reason, the oil sector is somewhat liberalised with private players allowed to refine and sell petrol. So you might find Reliance petrol selling 50p cheaper and you might actually have a choice of petrol. The price would be a function of the global crude oil price. This would have been impossible if recession was on. Reason - 5 -Global PC sales have gone up this time, after a lull of over 6 quarters of declining sales. This means that the disposal incomes of either individuals are up or corporates have been harnessed with the need for PCs being realised. Reason 6 - SEBI thinking of introducing Indian Depository Receipts - Just like the non-US companies listed in US markets are provided with American Depository Receipts, SEBI will have IDRs for India, which means there are obviously foreign companies who are looking at the Indian markets as promising. Reason - 7 - ITES and BPO have gathered the expected momentum as there is heavy demand for outsourcing from US and European countries. The level of growth was not seen even during the IT boom (McKinsey) Reason 8 - Strong forex reserves have provided the required cushion to India even if rupee falls. Reason 9 - Pharma sector expected to be a $25bn hub for production and R&D in India alone! That\'s a whopping figure and unless there is money to invest, this estimate would have been impossible. Reason 10 - Overall there is optimism, even the government is optimistic of finding A grade buyers for the assets that are proposed to be divested.
 All these reasons are applicable to India and Southeast Asian countries only - USA is still believed to be under the recession\'s grip.

by **lucifer-in-disguise** » Wed Oct 23, 2002 11:56 am

all your write ups and observations in these boards , reflect your passion to become a economic journalist, all the best

by **vivek of themavericks..remember!!** » Wed Oct 23, 2002 4:57 pm

I am so sorry to YELL, but please forget my personal email and instead of flodding my mail box. Kindly respond on the board. And lastly, I am not a broker!!:(

by **Sajjad** » Mon Oct 28, 2002 11:39 pm

Great job! Good analysis.

10 reasons to believe the recession is over